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HP Capacity Advisor Version 4.0 User's Guide > Chapter 5 Basic Procedures

Analyzing Trends and Forecasting Future Utilization

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HP Capacity Advisor provides trend analysis to allow you to better understand how the utilization of resources is changing over time and multiple levels of forecast models to allow precise control of forecasting future utilization.

Defining Forecast Models

Whenever a Capacity Advisor report or profile is generated with an end date later than the current date, the historical utilization data is projected into the future. The projection is indicated in the utilization graphs by a colored background next to the usual white background.

This projection is done based on a forecast model. Forecast models can be defined globally, for individual workloads or systems, for a scenario, and for individual workloads within a scenario. Since the process for defining a forecast model is basically the same regardless of where it is in the hierarchy of forecast models, the procedures below are broken into two parts: accessing the forecast model and defining it.

NOTE: Although forecast models cannot be deleted, all but the global forecast model can be disabled and enabled. Follow the appropriate procedure for accessing the forecast model and then follow the procedure for disabling or enabling it.

The Forecast Model Hierarchy

The forecast model can be specified at four different levels within Capacity Advisor, with more specific forecast models overriding more general models, as indicated in the following table:

Table 5-1 Forecast Models

ForecastDescriptionOverrides
Global ForecastApplies to all workloads in Capacity Advisor for which a more specific forecast is not provided.
• Nothing
Workload ForecastApplies to a specific workload in Capacity Advisor unless a more specific forecast is provided.
• Global
Scenario ForecastApplies to all workloads within a Capacity Advisor scenario for which a more specific forecast is not provided.
• Global
• Workload
Scenario Workload ForecastApplies to a specific workload within a Capacity Advisor scenario.
• Global
• Workload
• Scenario

 

Accessing the Global Forecast Model

The annual growth rates for the global forecast model are frequently based on an organization's planned growth rate. The global forecast model applies to all reports generated on systems and complexes. Reports on workloads or scenarios without a forecast model also use the global forecast model.

Prerequisites. To define the global forecast model:

  • You must be logged in to HP Systems Insight Manager. (See “Accessing Capacity Advisor”.)

  • You must have sufficient authorization to define the global forecast model (see VSE Management Software Version 4.0 Getting Started Guide).

Procedure 5-21 To Access the Global Forecast Model

  1. If you are not on the Capacity Advisor tab:

    • If the Capacity Advisor tab is visible, click the Capacity Advisor tab.

    • If the Capacity Advisor tab is not visible, select Optimize->Capacity Advisor->View Scenarios... from the HP SIM menu bar.

    The Capacity Advisor tab opens with a list of scenarios.

  2. From the Capacity Advisor menu bar, select Modify->Global Forecast...

    The Forecast Editor - Global Forecast Model screen displays.

Defining the Global Forecast Model

The settings that you define here are applied globally in the absence of other specifically targeted forecast models.

This procedure assumes that you have opened the Global Forecast Model screen (see “Accessing the Global Forecast Model”.)

  1. Provide a brief description of the forecast model in the Description field.

  2. Choose a time frame to use in tiling the data into the future (default: fixed interval).

    The time interval (date range) field adjusts according to your time frame selection.

  3. Select the date range for defining the period of data collection to use as the basis for the forecast.

    1. For a fixed interval: select the calendar interval, Beginning or Ending, and the date (MM-DD-YYYY)

    2. For a ranged interval: select the beginning and ending dates and times.

    3. For a float interval: select the calendar interval, Beginning or Ending, and general date indicator (default: Last Full Day)

  4. Provide Annual Projected Growth Rates for each resource: CPU, Memory, Network I/O, and Disk I/O. Use positive values for increasing utilization, negative values for decreasing utilization, and zero for no change). The default is 1% projected annual growth for every resource.

    TIP: You can estimate projected annual growth by including trend calculations in utilization reports derived by analyzing historical data. (See Determining Trends and “Stepping Through the Report Wizard”.)
  5. Click the OK button to save and apply a new definition for global forecasting.

    Undoing Changes to the Global Forecast:

    If you change your mind about values while editing this screen, use the Revert button to replace newly set values with the values that were there when you started.

    The Revert button does not return default values, so if you have edited the global forecast values once before, and then decide that you prefer the default values, you will have to set the values to 1 for each resource and click OK to have the original default values in operation.

Accessing the Forecast Model for a Workload or System

When the resource utilization of an individual workload or system is expected to differ from that predicted by the global forecast model, a workload- or system-specific forecast model can be created.

Forecasting for workloads or systems is done from within a Profile Viewer associated with the workload or system. See Using the Profile Viewer for information on how to access the viewer from the HP SIM Optimize menu or from a scenario.

IMPORTANT: The forecast model for a system is not inherited by any sub-OS workloads. If a system with sub-OS workloads is included in a scenario, the forecast model will not be used within the scenario.

Prerequisites. To define the forecast model for a workload or system:

  • You must be logged in to HP Systems Insight Manager. (See “Accessing Capacity Advisor”.)

  • You must have sufficient authorization to define the forecast model for a workload or a system (see VSE Management Software Version 4.0 Getting Started Guide).

Defining the Forecast Model for a Workload or System

The following procedure assumes that a Profile Viewer is open (see Using the Profile Viewer.)

  1. Locate the Edit Forecast Model... link near the top of the Profile Viewer screen, and click it.

    The Forecast Editor - Workload Forecast Model screen is displayed.

  2. Follow steps 1–4 in the procedure “Defining the Global Forecast Model” as the fields are the same for these steps.

The default state of the new forecast definition is Enabled.

Disabling a Forecast Model for a System or Workload

While it is not possible to delete a forecast model, user-defined system or workload forecast models can be disabled by accessing the appropriate forecast model via a Profile Viewer and using the following procedure.

  1. Click the Disable radio button.

  2. Click the OK button.

For more information, see

Enabling a Forecast Model

If you have disabled a user-defined system or workload forecast model, you can re-enable it by accessing the appropriate forecast model via a Profile Viewer and using the following procedure.

Procedure 5-25 To Enable a Forecast Model

  1. Click the Enable radio button.

  2. Click the OK button.

Generating Forecasts

Once you have defined one or more forecast models, you can view the results of the forecast models two ways:

Viewing Forecast Data in a Profile Viewer

The profile viewer provides a quick view of resource utilization for a system, complex, or workload. Once the profile viewer is posted, you can view the forecast by extending the date range into the future.

To view forecasts within a Profile Viewer:

Procedure 5-26 To View Forecast Data Within a Profile Viewer

  • Change the Time Frame and/or Interval and/or Beginning and/or Ending for the profile to include future dates and/or times. If necessary, click the Refresh button.

    The graph will be updated. Historical utilization data will be plotted on a white background and forecast data will be plotted on a colored background.

Viewing Forecast Data in a Utilization Report

Use the procedure specified in “Producing Graphs and Reports” and specify Ending (and possibly Beginning) times under Date Selection to include future times.

Historical utilization data will be plotted on a white background and forecast data will be plotted on a colored background.

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